Pittsburgh (2-2) at Detroit (1-3)

The Pittsburgh Steelers won’t depart with the Vince Lombardi Trophy this time, but their second successive victory and first road win would suffice. Back at Ford Field on Sunday for the first time ever since their Super Bowl victory more than three years ago, the Steelers faces a Detroit Lions team that might be without its starting quarterback. Pittsburgh hasn’t played a road game against the Lions since a 19-16 overtime loss on Nov. 26, 1998, but the Steelers last played at Ford Field on Feb. 5, 2006, when they beat Seattle 21-10 in Super Bowl XL. While the buildup to Sunday’s matchup pales in comparison to that surrounding the Steelers’ last trip to the Motor City, coach Mike Tomlin sees plenty of value in a win over the lowly Lions.

Whoever starts under center for Detroit would be at a major disadvantage if Calvin Johnson can’t play. The third-year receiver was also held out of practice Wednesday after taking a helmet to the thigh in the fourth quarter last weekend. Johnson had season highs with eight catches and 133 yards against Chicago. Steeler’s wide receiver Hines Ward caught eight passes for a season-best 113 yards last Sunday. Ward, the Super Bowl XL MVP, needs 70 receiving yards Sunday to bind with Andre Rison for 30th all-time with 10,205. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its previous 12 meetings with Detroit.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) vs. DETROIT

The ratings favor Pittsburgh by 15 points in this game, but that’s assuming the Steelers play at their normal high level. That’s probably not likely with Pittsburgh coming off 4 consecutive challenging games, who won’t be able to avoid an emotional letdown against the lowly Lions. Pittsburgh is only 5-11-1 ATS as a road favorite ever since 2006, including 2-9-1 ATS after a win and 2-8 ATS against a non-division foe.

Daunte Culpepper gets the start in place of injured rookie Matthew Stafford and that’s likely to mean fewer interceptions (Stafford threw 6 picks in 3 1/2 games). If Pittsburgh doesn’t endure a letdown then they will probably cover the spread, but the Steelers apply to a negative 27-64-3 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Detroit applies to a 90-36-4 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that plays on teams after losing by 20 points or more (there is obviously more to that angle that just that). With the math favoring Pittsburgh and the situation favoring Detroit maybe it is to best avoid this game.

Carolina VS. Washington

Carolina has started the season at 0-3 after going 12-4 last year and I expect the Panthers to start playing better now that they’ve had a bye week to stop the free fall. Winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 23-7 ATS following their bye week, so the Panthers should come out with renewed enthusiasm today and that should be enough to get past the struggling Redskins as long as they don’t continue being -2.7 in turnover margin per game. Washington lost to the Detroit team and barely beat winless teams St. Louis and Tampa Bay, thus taking a vacation should be a focused Carolina team does not bode well for the Skins.

Despite their low scoring games (29.5 total points average), Washington is actually average offensively (5.7 yards for every play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to the usual team) and worse than average defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average team), so the total on this game is probably lower than it should be. The math model only favors Carolina by 2 1/2 points, but Carolina should play better than they have and I’ll call for a 4 point victory.

Vince Young: Time to Buy a Fantasy Sleeper?

We’re now four games through the 2009 season, and the Tennessee Titans don’t have a win. After finishing last year with the best record in football, it’s safe to say this season has started as an huge disappointment. While the Titans lost their defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, to the Detroit Lions and the glue of their defensive line, Albert Haynesworth, to Washington as a free agent, the offense has been really poor so far this season. The next two weeks don’t get any easier for the Titans. They’ll host the Colts in Sunday Night Football next weekend before travelling to New England. Based on their year-to-date performance, there’s little reason to think the Titans won’t be 0-6 when they reach their bye week.

Which is why coach Jeff Fischer might strongly consider making a move under center, re-inserting Vince Young as the team’s starting quarterback. Even with Young as QB1, the Titans likely won’t turn things around on a dime. The Colts and Patriots are both playing great football right now, and will be tough to beat, even on Tennessee’s best day. But as an advice to fantasy owners of any player on the Titans offense is to watch the waiver wire for any changes that might be made in Tennessee. If Young becomes the starting quarterback for the Titans, depending on your roster, he might merit a roster spot.

Bears’ Hester Has Shoulder Area Injury

The Chicago Bears keep piling up wins and injuries. Their bye week couldn’t have come in a more perfect timing. Although they’ve won three straight, the Bears could use some recuperation time after Devin Hester became the latest high-profile addition to the injured list with an injury to the shoulder area during Sunday’s 48-24 win over the Detroit Lions. Coach Lovie Smith supposed Hester “should be fine,” but whether he’ll be ready for Atlanta in two weeks remains to be seen. The same goes for backup running back Adrian Peterson (sprained right knee) and receiver Johnny Knox (right shin) after they left Sunday’s game and defensive lineman Israel Idonije, who had what Smith said was “minor” arthroscopic surgery on his left knee Monday.

By the time Hester was gone from the game, the Bears had already lost Peterson, who was to undertake more tests on his knee. Knox followed them to the trainer’s room in the second half after starting the third quarter with a 102-yard return for a touchdown, the second longest on a kickoff in franchise history. As for Idonije, he had been hurting with a knee problem the past few weeks and was questionable for the Lions game. He wound up with a sack and forced a fumble.

Cutler Leads Bears Over Lions

On Sunday, Jay Cutler threw two touchdown passes and ran for one more, and the Bears pulled away in the second half to hammer the Lions 48-24 on Sunday a week after Detroit stopped its 19-game losing streak. Matt Forte rushed for 121 yards and rookie Johnny Knox returned a kickoff for a total of 102 yards and Chicago went into its bye week with 3 straight victories.

The Lions were celebrating a victory over the Redskins that stopped a losing streak that matched the second-longest in NFL history a week earlier. This time, they were stunned and shocked after watching quarterback Matthew Stafford, the first overall draft pick, twisted his right knee while being sacked in the fourth. Adewale Ogunleye sacked Stafford with third down on the Bears 6 and forced Detroit to kick a field goal that cut into Chicago’s lead to 34-24. Stafford was replaced by Daunte Culpepper on Detroit’s next drive, a melancholic sight for a team that has taken its share of sorrows over the years.

Lions Swap Out Wide Receivers

The Lions have signed wide receiver Adam Jennings, and set free wide receiver Yamon Figurs. Figurs had been getting reps at returner alongside Aaron Brown. Jennings is also superior at kick coverage than Figurs, who has been criticized for being too brittle. Jennings was the Lions’ best returner last season, but he was released by the Lions this offseason.

Figurs was a high draft pick by the Baltimore Ravens, but he never managed to show his worth. Jennings was drafted by the Falcons in the late rounds of the 2006 draft, he also never made a huge impact with the team. Can he make the best out of this new opportunity? This may be the blessing that the Lions are hoping for. After their victory against the Redskins, are we to expect more from them or was it just a road block to their improbable run to destroy history’s longest losing streak?

Redskins Vs. Buccaneers

Washington is a better than what they’ve shown on the scoreboard, as the Skins have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 5.4 yppl and are only -1 in turnover margin yet have been out scored 13.3 to 16.3. Washington has been able to move the ball but they’ve had trouble turning yards into points, needing 25.7 yards for every point scored, which is 5 standard deviations away from the average of 16 yards per point. In other words, it is very unlikely that the Redskins will continue to score points at such a low percentage of their yards.

Last week the Redskins out-gained Detroit 7.0 yppl to 5.3 yppl with just 1 turnover and lost the game because they only scored 14 points on their 390 total yards. The Redskins actually move the ball better than an average team and I expect them to start scoring like at least an average team. Washington will probably dominate in yards per play again this week, as Tampa Bay is 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and will now be turning to 2nd year quarterback Josh Johnson to turn things around. If veteran quarterback Byron Leftwich cannot make the Bucs offense reach at least decent levels than I don’t see how Johnson will be any better. My ratings favor Washington by 14 1/2 points in this game with the Redskins projected to out-gain Tampa Bay 6.4 yppl to another 4.9 yppl. The difference between my ratings on the line is the highest of any game this week, but Washington applies to a negative 7-32-1 ATS situation and a negative 42-95-3 ATS situation that will keep me from making the Redskins a play.

Bears VS. Lions

Detroit finally won a game last week, but don’t be fooled by their win over the Redskins. The Lions were outnumbered 5.3 yards per play to 7.0 yards per play by Washington and other teams are not going to be as inept in the red zone as the Redskins are. For the season Detroit has averaged only 4.5 yards every play (against teams that would allow 5.0 yards for every play to an average team) while allowing a horrendous 6.6 yards for every play (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play against an average team).

Chicago has out-gained their tougher than average schedule (Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle) 5.3 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play and my ratings favor the Bears by 15 points in this game while the math using this year’s games only would favor them by 17 1/2 points. Unfortunately, Chicago applies to a negative 72-147-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while Detroit applies to a 44-14-3 ATS week 4 angle.

The NFL Draft Results

 Matthew Stafford was picked first as expected but there were some surprises in the draft itself.  The Ravens picked tackle Michael Oher and Paul Kruger, two individuals that would serve to bolster their defense. The Bengals chose tackle Andre Smith and linebacker Rey Maualaga that would fit their needs up front. The Eagles on their part got the best wideouts in the draft in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. The Packers got the best defensive tackle in the lot by choosing BJ Raji who can play nose guard and tackle on the offensive line.

On the other end, Dallas drafted down but got players that may not even break into the team. The Buccaneers traded up to get Josh Freeman, but is the gamble worth on an unproven player still to mature. Some of the other teams made conservative moves of the draft and the fruits may still be seen when the regular season comes rolling in.

 

Matthew Stafford is now a Detroit Lion

The Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford have reached an agreement that guarantees the former University of Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford a sum worth $41.7 million. The full contract is worth $72 million for six years and with incentives may even reach $78 million.

The record setting deal is well above the deal reached by the Miami Dolphins last year with its first round pick Jake Long. The deal with Stafford would be $12 million on minimum playing time and $13 million per year with incentives.

This ends weeks of speculation as to the true pick by the Detroit Lions who wanted a quarterback all along, but had a plan B with Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry should negotiations with Stafford fall through. Coach Jim Schwartz is now trying to break the jinx of being the first 0-16 team in the league and they have placed their fortunes on the shoulders of the confident and strong Matthew Stafford.

Detroit Lions in Dealer Mode

The Detroit Lions, owners of the top pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, are making it certain they would not let others know who they would select as number one rookie. The plan is to get an agreement prior to making their selection public. GM Martin Mayhew though has stated that chances were “very good” in reaching an agreement with their top pick.

When asked about specific players, such as Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, he declined to make a comment. But observers are saying that Detroit would be making either the Georgia quarterback, Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry or Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith as their short list of candidates for the number one pick come draft day. Agents for the three did not return calls for their client’s confirmations on the report.

Matthew Stafford though has been vocal about his hopes to play in Detroit in order to help the first 0-16 season team in NFL history get out of the doldrums. He has said, “I want to get a chance to turn something around” and says, “it’d be a heck of a place for me to be able to go.”

Culpepper Drops Weight

Daunte Culpepper, the incumbent Detroit Lions Quarterback, is feeling light these days and this is a positive sign for the Lions for the forthcoming season. This was confirmed by Lions General Manager Martin Mayhew as he saw Culpepper’s visible weight loss.

In Culpepper’s contract with the Lions, there is a clause which stipulates that he is to play during the season at 265 lbs the most. Last season, he was taking snaps at nearly 290 lbs. A close source to the embattled quarterback has said that he is serious about the weight loss and he knows it’s his meal ticket to survive. The added weight came on after sustaining a triple ligament knee injury in the 2005 season and has been bouncing around the league since then. He was signed by the Lions last November after stints with Miami and Oakland. He has also reunited with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan who mentored him in Minnesota to his 2004 quarterback performance rating of 110.9, his highest ever. Time is of the essence as the Lions have been spending time with Matthew Stafford, the best quarterback prospect in the draft come April.

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