NFL Playoff: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

 

In the Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots game, several things helped New England beat Baltimore 27-21, not the least of which was the Pats’ ever-better defense. The current feeling all week is that defense will determine the result of this game. And it is what comes about. But New England’s underestimated unit and not Baltimore’s much-rated bunch that lived up the biggest when it was needed. Holding on to a six-point lead with only five minutes to go in the match, the Patriots twice got the Ravens on fourth-down attempts, once near midfield and the other in Pats red zone. While the Pats defense had a hard time to stop the Ravens Ray Rice second-year running back on the afternoon with 11 carries for 103 yards, plus a 50-yard gallop, Baltimore decided to throw the ball to Willis McGahee the backup on fourth-and-one from their own 45 at the 5:17 mark. Gary Guyton Linebacker and Brandon McGowan safety joined to stop McGahee just short of the necessary spot.

The last effort came with just thirty seconds remaining. Baltimore had run from their 20-yard line down to New England’s 20. On first down, Joe Flacco quarterback threw a pass into the end zone to Mark Clayton that was too far for his arms. Kelley Washington a former Patriot picked up six yards with a reception on the next play. Flacco’s next pass was secured inside the 10 by the Pats secondary. After, on fourth down, Clayton almost had first down yardage, but the pass went off his body and Patriots defenders tapped it away and the game ended. That is situational football, said Adalius Thomas. Being able to assess the situation and knowing how to respond.

The Patriots defense has now apprehended opponents to 17, 16, 10, and 14 points in four games; this does not include the two Tom Brady turnovers that resulted in opponents’ scores. They continue to look for ways to help the team win, even with injuries and first-year players coping up to the system. The defense is great right now, said Logan Mankins a guard. You can say a lot about the guys since they made a good job. I think a lot of plays were left out there, Thomas added. But we made it. It was not great, but you will have to take it and try to learn from the mistakes and get better. We are all having fun, concluded Meriweather. We are getting used to play as one. We are learning what kind of stuff each player can do. This is the reason why the Patriots have a 3-1 score. This is what the match between Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots is made of.

BALTIMORE (-8.5) vs. Cincinnati

Baltimore is still winning games, but the Ravens are doing things a bit differently this season by winning with a better offense and an ordinary defense rather than a dominating defense and an ordinary offense. The Ravens actually haven’t been all that great so far, as their improved offense is only 0.3 yards per play better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) while their defense has given up 5.2 yppl to a collection of teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Ravens were able to limit bad offensive teams Kansas City and Cleveland to an average of just 187 total yards but they gave up an average of 397 yards at 6.1 yppl to San Diego and New England.

Cincinnati’s offense is somewhere in between, as the Bengals are not as bad as KC and Cleveland but not as good at the Chargers and Pats. Cincy is actually slightly worse than average offensively so far this season, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, but the Bengals’ defense has played well in allowing just 5.1 yppl (excluding the fluke 87 yard tipped pass TD by Denver that beat them in week 1) to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. The Ravens only have a small edge on Cincinnati overall from the line of scrimmage, but they have an edge in special teams and in projected turnovers. The math model favors Baltimore by just 5 1/2 points and it is best to lean with the Bengals plus the points despite a solid 176-98-5 ATS statistical indicator that favors Baltimore.

Rookie Cut From Ravens Dies in Washington

Tony Fein, an Iraq war veteran and NFL rookie linebacker who played with the Baltimore Ravens during the preseason, has died of unexplained causes after collapsing at a friend’s house in what his agent said appears to be “an accidental situation.” Fein, 27, an undrafted rookie free agent from Mississippi, was lying face down and lifeless, vomiting and barely breathing when the med teams arrived at a house outside Port Orchard on the Kitsap Peninsula just before 9 a.m PDT Tuesday, Mike Wernet said, a battalion chief and medical officer with South Kitsap Fire & Rescue.

The medics put a breathing tube down Fein’s throat after he stopped breathing and administered medication, but he went into cardiac arrest during the drive to Harrison Medical Center in Bremerton, across Puget Sound from Seattle, and was pronounced dead at the hospital at 9:48 a.m. PDT Tuesday. A man and woman who were there described Fein as a friend who was living with them. They told the aid crew they woke up and found him indifferent and vomiting.

Lewis, Reed Avoid Fines

Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis and Safety Ed Reed will not be fined for their post-game remarks criticizing the officials in the team’s 27-21 loss to the Patriots. Who would’ve thought that there were no fines, I guess you could do anything you want now. Lewis for one just went off on the officials in the game. He just snapped in their face and at first thought he might’ve wanted to hurt them in some manner. But in reality, both players were criticizing the league’s recent moves to protect quarterbacks. As Lewis sees it, the new rules and interpretations make it unfeasible for a player to hit a quarterback without getting flagged.

No word yet on whether John Harbaugh will be fined for his in-game antics, which drew a personal foul, and his post-game remarks which were analogous to Lewis and Reed. I would expect Harbaugh to see a hefty fine by this week.

Roughing The Passer Rule Needs To Change: Why Tom Brady Needs to Stop Complaints

Football is and will forever be a tough game. There’s a reason there are only 16 games in an NFL season. Players need time to recuperate from being crushed for 60-minutes every week. But, if breathing too hard on a quarterback is a penalty now then do they really need a week to recover? For those that haven’t seen the plays in the Patriots-Ravens game on Sunday, there were two very questionable roughing-the-passer calls. Terrell Suggs barely touched Tom Brady’s leg and Brady started complaining like Tonya Harding hired someone to come after him.The second was when Haloti Ngata grazed Brady’s helmet. Maybe Brady was worried Ngata would mess up his hair because again Brady begged for a flag to be thrown.

Now I’m all for protecting the quarterback, if you’re an offensive lineman. I understand that quarterbacks have to stand in there and take hits when they are basically defenseless. And roughing-the-passer should absolutely be called when a quarterback is hit hard late. But looking threateningly at a quarterback is not a penalty. At what point do we just give these guys a red jersey and make it a game of touch-football? If quarterbacks don’t stop complaining every time someone gets near them, maybe they should just wear those pink shoes and wristbands every week.

Pats Beat Ravens

Mark Clayton was open and waited for the 4th-down pass that could keep the Ravens’ hopes alive. Joe Flacco reached his target inside the Patriots 10-yard line and past the first-down marker, but Clayton didn’t hold on with 28 seconds remaining. New England did—eking out a 27-21 victory over Baltimore on Sunday. The game was certain when Clayton dropped the ball and the Patriots ran out the timer as they kept their unbeaten record against the Ravens with their fifth win.

Brady completed 21 of his 32 passes for a total of 258 yards, one TD and no interceptions. Flacco, on the other hand, went 27 for 47 for a total of 264 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Trailing 17-7 at the half, Baltimore made it 17-14 when Terrell Suggs hit Brady for a sack and knocked the ball loose. Dwan Edwards recovered the football in the end zone for a touchdown with 6:19 left in the third quarter. But Brady led the Patriots on their next possession, a 79-yard drive ending with his 14-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss.

Ravens Showing Confidence in Subtle Humor, Irony

If you saw Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh’s press conference Monday afternoon, you couldn’t help but chuckle about the exchange he claims to have had with special teams stand-out Brendon Ayanbadejo. When asked his thoughts on Ayanbadejo’s increased roll on the team’s defensive sub-packages, Harbaugh was a little uneasy about the Pro Bowl linebacker’s mindset.

It is uplifting to see that even though the Ravens take their game very seriously, they don’t necessarily take themselves too seriously. A team that can enjoy with some good-natured ribbing shows that they have a assured level of confidence and trust in one another, which translates into performance come Sunday. Tight end L.J Smith is one more example. Smith had been fighting a hamstring injury since training camp and finally saw his first regular season game action last week against the Browns. After producing a first quarter reception for a first down, Smith came to the sideline and was quickly greeted with even more Raven spoof. If the Ravens go on and show thick skin, the result will definitely be more wins.

Lions Swap Out Wide Receivers

The Lions have signed wide receiver Adam Jennings, and set free wide receiver Yamon Figurs. Figurs had been getting reps at returner alongside Aaron Brown. Jennings is also superior at kick coverage than Figurs, who has been criticized for being too brittle. Jennings was the Lions’ best returner last season, but he was released by the Lions this offseason.

Figurs was a high draft pick by the Baltimore Ravens, but he never managed to show his worth. Jennings was drafted by the Falcons in the late rounds of the 2006 draft, he also never made a huge impact with the team. Can he make the best out of this new opportunity? This may be the blessing that the Lions are hoping for. After their victory against the Redskins, are we to expect more from them or was it just a road block to their improbable run to destroy history’s longest losing streak?

Cleveland Vs. Cincinnati

The Brady Quinn era ended pretty quickly in Cleveland, as the Browns’ Quinn-led offense has averaged just 3.9 ypp. Cleveland has played 3 teams that are good defensively (Minnesota, Denver and Baltimore), but those are bad numbers even when you take that into account. Derek Anderson takes over and should be better, but Anderson has not been able to back up his very good 2007 season. Anderson has averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play in 11 games since the beginning of last season and that’s where I’ll rate him heading into this game.

The Browns have to face another good defense this week, as Cincinnati has allowed just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against the normal defensive team. Cincy has been about average offensively so far (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to a normal team) but the Bengals’ attack should have flourished against a sub-par Browns’ defense which couldn’t stop the run (5.6 ypr allowable) and has only gotten worse than the usual contrary to the pass too (6.8 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp). My ratings favor Cincinnati by 7 points and using this year’s games only (and adjusting for Anderson at QB for Cleveland) results in a prediction of Bengals by 8 points. There are good situations favoring both teams in this game, so I’ll stick to the math and lean with Cincy minus the points.

Patriots Vs. Ravens

Baltimore has looked very good so far on both sides of the ball, but dominating Kansas City and Cleveland at home is expected and their win at San Diego isn’t really impressive given that the Ravens were out-gained 5.4 yards for each play to 7.1 yards per play by the Chargers. It’s pretty obvious that Baltimore is improved offensively in quarterback Joe Flacco’s second season but their pass defense has been poor (6.8 yards per pass play allowed) and Tom Brady should be able to exploit that weakness in this game. The Patriots are worse than average defensively as expected, allowing 5.4 yards per play to the teams that would combine to average 5.1 yards per play against an average defensive unit, so Baltimore should move the ball as well.

My ratings favor Baltimore by 2 points, but the Ravens apply to a negative 25-57 ATS road letdown situation following last week’s easy win over the Browns.

Three Thoughts on Ravens-Patriots

These may not be the Patriots of 2007, but they are still the Patriots. These Patriots may have lost a game early to a team they usually dominate, and they may have struggled against a questionable Bills team, but they are still the Patriots. Tom Brady is just three games in to a recovery that many times can take a full season, or more. And yet, last week against Atlanta, the Patriots we all fear showed up and dominated a familiar Atlanta Falcons team.

The Ravens balance on offense gives them hope. The Ravens offensive attack this season might be the league’s most balanced. It’s not just balanced pass-to-rush. The rushing game itself is brilliantly balanced between three runners of varying styles – the speedy Ray Rice, the deceptive Willis McGahee, and the powerful Le’Ron McClain. The team may not be able to put all three on the field for every play, but each is strong enough to keep this offense moving on its own. Even in pass heavy victories against the Chiefs and Browns, the Ravens runners have made an impact.

The Ravens have plenty of holes. Not sure why the Ravens seem to be such favorites in this game around the country, but they are getting a lot of love. I’m not even entirely against it, but it is a bit curious. It was just two weeks ago that Philip Rivers threw for 440 yards against a battered Ravens secondary – without several starters on his offensive line. The Pats offer just as many problems: a steady, deadly quarterback in Tom Brady; a corps of tall, speedy receivers featuring Randy Moss; and a powerful offensive line that specializes in pass blocking.

Anderson Back at QB for Cleveland

The Cleveland Browns turned their mournful offense over to Derek Anderson and won 10 games 2 years ago. Browns coach Eric Mangini is hoping that he can do it again. With his first season in Cleveland already unscrambling, Brady Quinn was benched by Mangini in favor or Derek Anderson. One touchdown and 29 points in Quinn’s three starts for the Browns, and Mangini has seen enough to believe Anderson deserves a chance to show what he can do. Mangini brought in Anderson after benching Quinn at halftime of Sunday’s embarrassing 34-3 loss in Baltimore and he was able to move the ball with more consistency.

In his first game in his 2007 promotion, Anderson threw five touchdown passes in a 51-45 win over Cincinnati. The Browns are hosting the much improved Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday, a fact that made Anderson smile when he was reminded about what happened the last time he was promoted. Will the Browns move forward with Anderson back at QB for Cleveland?

Rivers Leads Chargers to Win Over Dolphins

Rivers was watching film all week and he suddenly picked something worthy up, Rivers scored on a 5-yard scramble late in the third quarter Sunday to emphasize a 23-13 victory over the hapless Miami Dolphins, who also lost starting quarterback Chad Pennington to a shoulder injury in the second half and is probably out for an extended period of time. In the shotgun on third-and-goal, the pocket collapsed and Rivers couldn’t find his receivers, but then the middle was suddenly wide open and he ran into the end zone for 10-6 lead. Rivers’ TD run was the highlight of  a 75-yard, five-play drive that also has his 47-yard pass to Malcom Floyd and a razzle-dazzle play where Sproles got the handoff and ran right before throwing it back with a backward pass to Rivers, who hit tight end Antonio Gates for 19 yards.

A week after throwing for a career-high 436 yards in a defeat to Baltimore, Rivers was 18 of 33 for 303 yards. Still, that was enough for Rivers to lead the Chargers to a victory over the Miami Dolphins.

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